After Super Tuesday, Can McCain Pick Up The Pieces of a Fractured Republican Party?
 
It was a difficult night for Mitt Romney and the stop-McCain movement. With Huckabee’s strong showing in several Southern States as well as McCain capturing California, the odds of Romney securing the nomination seem formidable. Indeed, Fox News is reporting that Romney has cancelled campaign events scheduled for later this week.
Can McCain assuage concerns of the conservative base of the party? He will have an opportunity to do so at the CPAC conference tomorrow, but I am skeptical he will clinch the sale. The Super Tuesday results show that McCain ran well in many of the Blue States of the Northeast. But these are precisely the states that recently and reliable tended to tilt to the Democrats in presidential elections.
A great deal of McCain’s strength comes from moderates and independents. But as I have stated previously, come the general election, when voters are presented with a choice between a Democrat and a Democrat, they will vote for the Democrat every time. Given McCain’s need to please moderates and independents, I don’t see how he will win over conservatives at CPAC for fear of alienating his true base which is precisely these moderates and independents.
I don’t see many conservatives jumping on the McCain bandwagon with enthusiasm. In fact, a good portion of those who are dispirited may decide to sit out the general election. After the disappointment of the Bush Presidency, many conservatives are asking themselves: is there a home for us in the Republican Party?
The problem with any entreaties McCain makes to conservatives at this stage is that his actual record on issues clearly belies any promises he will make to pursue a conservative agenda. After all, Bush sold us on the idea that he was a conservative also. Are we to ignore the Bush legacy? Strategic and tactical blunders in the early stages of the Iraq War; his near miss with the catastrophic Harriet Miers nomination to the Supreme Court (what in God’s name was he thinking?); his unabashedly open borders immigration policy; his gargantuan spending increases concomitant with an enormous expanse of the scope and power of the federal government.
McCain will go into the general election as a severely weak candidate. He is the oldest person ever to run for the presidency. He does not have the enthusiastic support of the conservative base of the party. Indeed, when has he ever solicited the conservative wing of the party? On far too many issues of import to conservatives, McCain simply is of a similar mind as the Democrats. Is McCain going to be able to reconcile in one day years of policy positions that are anathema to the base?
I could be wrong, but I rather think not.
Beacon Street Journal
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
By John Kinsellagh